seeking partner

Can clearer uncertainty increase trust without reducing conversion?

Find the point at which evidence and uncertainty improve customer action rather than overwhelm or discourage it.

ProductMarketingSalesAdoption & Retention

LLM Software & Platforms

WHAT YOU CAN EXPECT

Evidence protects you in both directions.

Illustrative result · threshold met

+14% · appropriate customer action

Marketing managerIllustrative result · threshold met

+14%

appropriate customer action

Calibrated uncertainty paired with a clear recommendation improved customer decisions without materially reducing paid conversion.

What your study would pin down

You get the confidence and uncertainty presentation that works for your customer segment, including where more disclosure improves decisions and where it starts depressing conversion.

Decision

Use explicit uncertainty where it changes action, not as a blanket disclaimer.

Public precedent · not your resultAAAI 2026

Well-calibrated confidence improved decision accuracy by +20%; miscalibrated confidence delivered only +2%.

In a 184-person study, calibrated confidence substantially improved human decisions and perceived utility, while miscalibrated confidence increased automation and conservatism biases.

Source: AAAI 2026 ↗The precedent shows the effect can exist elsewhere. Your study determines whether, where, and how strongly it holds for your customers, workflows, and economics.

Decision

Evidence protects you in both directions.

Marketing managerThreshold not met · do not scale

What the data may show

No improvement

If the intervention does not clear the predefined threshold, that is evidence against spending more to build, launch, or scale it in this context.

Decision

Retain the current interface.

Marketing managerThreshold met · value left unused

The other expensive error

A real opportunity can still be left on the table.

If the intervention clears the threshold but the business keeps the current approach, measurable savings, revenue, adoption, or risk reduction may remain unrealized.

Decision

Act only when the measured opportunity is large enough to justify the change.

Source

Public precedent · not your result

Related published evidenceAAAI 2026

Miscalibrated confidence can make uncertainty cues actively misleading.

The same experiment found only a +2% accuracy gain from miscalibrated confidence and greater vulnerability to accepting wrong high-confidence recommendations or rejecting correct low-confidence ones.

Source: AAAI 2026 ↗External research for context — not a promise that the same effect size will reproduce in your customers.

Comparable public caseGoogle / Alphabet

An inaccurate Bard demo was followed by roughly $100B in lost market value that day.

Reuters reported that Alphabet lost about $100 billion in market value after Bard made an inaccurate claim in a promotional demo and the launch event disappointed investors. The market move had multiple drivers.

Source: Reuters ↗Comparable public case — not a claim that this study would have prevented the event.

HYPOTHESIS

Calibrated uncertainty presented with an actionable recommendation will improve appropriate customer action by at least 10% without reducing paid conversion by more than 2%.

PRIMARY METRIC

Rate of appropriate action against a predefined task rubric.

MEANINGFUL THRESHOLD

+10% appropriate action with no more than −2% conversion.

BUSINESS TARGET

Higher retention and lower complaint or refund rates.

DECISION RULES

Comprehension improves and conversion holds

Pilot the uncertainty pattern.

Comprehension improves but conversion falls

Test a lighter presentation.

No improvement

Retain the current interface.

Business outcomes are research targets, not guarantees. A null or negative result may still create substantial value by preventing investment in an ineffective product, feature, or campaign.

Population

Prospective customers using an LLM-supported decision product.

Intervention

Confidence, evidence, and limitations presented in a compact decision frame.

Comparator

A confident recommendation without explicit uncertainty framing.

Secondary metrics

Paid conversion · Trust calibration · Decision time

MAKE IT YOUR DECISION

Turn this research question into a decision for your business.

We adapt the population, intervention, thresholds, and economics to your customers. The result may tell you to scale, to stop spending, or to act on an opportunity you are currently leaving unused. Each of those is a useful business decision when the evidence is strong enough.

The goal is not a positive result. The goal is evidence strong enough to change a real decision.

Design this study for your business